Is China Facing a Shortage of Pilots?

According to the prediction of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), by the year 2030, the number of civil flights worldwide will double to 50 million, the civil aircraft amount will triple to 151 thousand, and the demand for pilots will double to 980 thousand. In light of this, 52.5 thousand more pilots should be trained and qualified yearly in order to meet these demands. According to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA), 184 thousand more pilots should be trained and made qualified to meet the demands in the Asia and Pacific area alone in the coming 20 years, among which China needs 72 thousand qualified pilots. Simply put, China will be in bad need of qualified pilots in future. Furthermore, some Chinese specialists have predicted that China will likely need 18 thousand more qualified pilots by 2015 alone. Is this really the case?

The Pressures of Flight are Heavy, Fine Management Remains Difficult

In the “China Civil Aviation Pilot Development Report 2012”, published by the Flight Standards Department, the CAAC showed that by the end of 2012, there were a total of 8,518 pilots and 13,176 co-pilots working among China’s airlines. According to an introduction given by a spokesperson from the Flight Standards Department of the CAAC, it is common for a typical flight crew to include one pilot and one co-pilot. However, since the amount of co-pilots almost doubles that of more senior pilots, it is common in China for a flight to be operated with one pilot and two co-pilots. According to data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), China’s civil operators had accumulated a total of 6.19 million flight hours in 2012, with each flight crew averaging 727 flight hours each (6190000/8518). Compared with the official flight limit of 1,000 hours for each crew, the 727 flight hours actually accumulated is certainly less. In light of these figures, it seems that the current pilots are enough to satisfy China’s civil aviation demands. But why do China’s airlines still have difficulties coping with their pilot demands?

First of all, the working situation of China’s pilots is complicated. According to the data of the Flight Standards Department of the CAAC, 10% of all flight crews work long-range flights, in which two flight crews are on duty, meaning that the flight hours of pilots should be increased by 10% to reflect this. Moreover, 10% of China’s flights operate under special conditions, such as flights to and from high-altitude airports. These flights sometimes require two flight crews, meaning another 10% should be added to the total flight hours. Furthermore, 10% of China’s pilots are working in the management sector, resulting in fewer flight hours. In addition, many new pilots are emerging in China. Usually, a flight is conducted by two new pilots or one new pilot accompanied by a seasoned pilot. Therefore, the average flight hours of China’s pilots is seen to grow from 727 to 981 (727*1.35).

Obviously, the figure 981 is still less than the limit of 1,000 hours. However, airlines should still practice proper management and invest in the means to accurately schedule the flight time of each pilot to meet the Industry’s demands. This task requires very high skill in the management of pilots who face heavy pressure in their flight tasks. This is the first reason why it appears that China faces a lack of pilots.

Secondly, the amounts of flights in off-seasons and in busy, peak-travel seasons are very different. Generally, the flight hours of China’s pilots in off-seasons are not long, which is why they can fly longer in busier seasons to meet the heavy demands. However, since the average flight times of China’s pilots are reaching the limit of 1,000 hours, it is very difficult for airlines to adjust these pilots’ schedules in busy seasons. Consequently, China’s airlines have difficulties coping with their pilot demands.

Thirdly, China’s pilots are not evenly distributed among its airlines. Some newly formed or rapidly expanding airlines often run short of ways to train and utilize their own pilots. If these airlines are opening too many flights and increasing their daily aircraft utilization, they will soon face a lack of manpower causing them to recruit a large number of pilots. This, in turn puts stress on the entire civil aviation industry, worsening the climate of pilot shortages.

The Amount of Pilots Grows Rapidly Reserve Force is Strong

According to China’s 12th Five-Year Plan for Civil Aviation Development, during the plan’s period China’s transportation aircraft fleet size and pilot amount are aimed to increase at a rate of 11%. According to the Middle-Term Assessment Reports of the Civil Aviation Development During the 12th Five-Year Plan Period (Middle-Term Assessment Reports) released by the CAAC, China’s pilot amount showed an increase of 14.35%, a growth rate much higher than that of its aircraft fleet.

Therefore, some specialists predict that if China’s pilot amount continues growing by 14.35%, or if it maintains a growth rate more than at least 11%, then the number of pilots will more or less be able to meet the demands of China’s civil aviation industry.

Certainly, either the growth of the pilot amount or the growth of the aircraft amount should not demand the sacrifice of aircraft utilization and the rest time of pilots. The Middle-Term Assessment Reports show that by the middle of the 12th Five-Year Plan period, aircraft utilization in China reached the targeted rate of 9.6 h/d, which is relatively high compared with that of the US’s large airlines, as shown on the AirlineDataProject’s official website. In addition, the data of China’s air transportation in 2012 shows that the hours flown by China’s pilots remain in accordance with the regulations of the CAAC.

In addition, the pilot amount in the next five years can be predicted based on the analysis of the statistical age data of pilots and its structure, as well as the amount of recruited students, retirees and sickness absentees. The data from the CAAC shows that flight hours in 2012 have grown by 10.54% over 2011, and it is predicted that the total flight hours in 2013 will grow by 10.8% over 2012. In other words, the growth rates of these two years are roughly equal to 11%. As a result, it can be expected that by 2016, China will be able to resolve its lack of pilots.

In reality, prior to 2005 China did not face any real shortage of pilots. According to a spokesperson from the Flight Standards Department of the CAAC, in 2005 privately run and regional airlines developed quickly and began to recruit large numbers of pilots. In the year 2005 alone, 1,500 pilots were recruited, which was a large increase over previous years.

As is standard in civil aviation schools and airline training programs, before entering service most pilots study flight theory and receive flight training for two to four years; after beginning their pilot career, they often work as a co-pilot for 6 years or so before being promoted to captain. What this means is that the first batch of student pilots recruited in 2005 will not become fully qualified pilots until approximately 2015. In other words, before 2015, airlines may face difficulties in satisfying pilot demand.

Meanwhile, the recruitment amount in China’s flight schools is growing year by year. For example, this year alone, 3,711 pilot students were recruited in China. As a result, at this point China’s pilot reserve is sufficient.

Other Areas for Pilots to Apply Their Abilities

Although the amount of pilots is growing rapidly, it is incorrect to assume that there will be a surplus of pilots in the future, as they can apply their skills in many different areas.

Currently, China is vigorously developing it general aviation (GA) industry. Being a common problem in most regions in China, the lack of GA pilots also presents an opportunity for qualified civil aviation pilots.

Other industries that need pilots include aircraft and aircraft component manufacturers. Almost every aircraft and aircraft component manufacturer in the US and Europe has its own test pilot team to participate in its product design, production, test flight, etc., as pilots can put forward more practical and professional advice and suggestions on the matter, helping to avoid operational risks. Since China is relatively lacking in this kind of system, it needs a large number of pilots to participate in the production process of aircraft and aircraft components.

In addition, China also seriously lacks flight instructors. The “China Civil Aviation Pilot Development Report 2012” showed that by the end of 2012, there were only 345 private helicopter pilots among the 30,829 civil aviation pilots, showing a large discrepancy in training. According to industry insiders, in the future China’s flight schools will shift from training pilots to training flight instructors. In short, there will be a bad need for flight instructors in China.

In addition to the areas above, the aircraft inspection and meteorological fields as well as other departments of the civil aviation industry also require the participation of many kinds of experienced technicians that often possess some kind of pilot license.

What can be seen from this is that being a transportation pilot is no longer the only career option available to pilots. They will play an important role in the other fields of the civil aviation industry, the diversification in the development of which will create another broad field of opportunities for pilots.

Additional remarks

The predictions regarding pilots are based on the following conditions:

First, the flight hours of transport pilots are now growing by about 11%. If China opens its low-altitude airspace, there will be more flights and likely more passengers which will cause China to need more pilots than currently predicted.

Secondly, China’s civil aviation industry hasn’t experienced any particularly rapid growth in recent years. As China’s national economy develops and the Chinese people’s living standards grow, there may yet be extraordinary development in China’s civil aviation industry. This article doesn’t take into consideration such an assumption. Finally, this article assumes the flight hour limit is 1,000 hours per year, as set by the CAAC. Given the work load of China’s pilots and severe fatigue brought on by longer ground holding periods, in the future China’s civil aviation industry may lower the flight hour limit, in which case the pilot amount needed in coming years will be more than the amount predicted in this article.

国际民航组织（ICAO）预计，到2030年，全球每年的航班数量将翻倍，达到5000万架次；航空器数目将是目前的3倍，突破151000架；同时，需要98万名飞行员，是现役飞行员人数的2倍。这就意味着每年需要培养52500名新飞行员，才能填补这个缺口。而亚太航空公司协会则认为，仅亚太地区未来20年就需要培养18.4万名合格的飞行员。其中，中国需要飞行员7.2万名，未来中国将面临严重的飞行员紧缺问题。与此同时，有民航业内专家预测，仅到2015年，中国飞行员缺口就将高达1.8万名。事实果真如此吗？

飞行强度大,精细化管理难

中国民用航空局飞行标准司（以下简称“民航局飞标司”）今年3月出版的《中国民航驾驶员发展年度报告2012年版》显示，截至2012年末，中国运输航空公司共有机长8518名、副驾驶13176名。据民航局飞标司工作人员介绍，在通常情况下，飞机上配备的机组人员包括1名机长和1名副驾驶。但由于中国副驾驶人数远远多于机长总数，很多飞机上的机组成员都是由1名机长和2名副驾驶组成的。根据民航局的统计数据，2012年中国运输航空飞行小时累计达到619万小时，也就是说，平均每个机组飞行了727小时（6190000/8518）。相较于民航局CCAR-121部对飞行机组成员每年1000小时的飞行时限来说，中国现有的机长数量是能够满足民航运输生产需求的。既然如此，为什么航空公司还会感到捉襟见肘？

首先，机长的飞行状况比较复杂。中国民航局飞标司工作人员算了一笔账：中国远程航线机队数量约占整个机队的10%，而远程航线是要占用两个机组的，这就意味着机长的飞行时间要在727小时的基础上增加10%；中国还有10%左右的特殊航线，如飞高原机场，这类航线有时也要占用两个机组，所以飞行时间还要再加上10%；中国民航还有部分机长就职于技术管理岗位，由于工作需要，他们相对飞行时间较少，不能全部计入可用人数，这部分机长约占机长总数的10%；另外，中国每年还有很多新机长，这些新机长要么两名搭配着一起飞行，要么由一名经验丰富的机长带着飞，因此这些新机长实际上只发挥了一半的作用。于是，每名机长的飞行小时数就由最初的727小时变成了981小时（727×1.35）。

虽然并没有超过民航局规定的1000小时的飞行时限，但航空公司需要进行精细化的管理，以及付出较高的管理成本，才能准确安排每名机长的飞行时刻，以满足运输生产的需求。这项工作对管理者的要求非常高，完成起来较为困难，加之机长的劳动强度较大，所以这就是为什么看起来飞行员数量紧张的原因之一。

其次，运输生产淡旺季偏差较大。在正常情况下，飞行员在生产淡季时的飞行时间并不长，因而才能够在生产旺季时增加飞行小时数量，以满足运输需求。但由于中国飞行员平均飞行时间已接近上限，以至于当生产旺季到来时，公司无法对飞行员再进行调整。所以，在旺季时，尤其是春运和暑运期间，航空公司就会感到飞行员不足。

最后，飞行员在各个航空公司之间分布不均。一些新成立或高速发展的航空公司，因自身“造血能力”不足，再加上航线的大量增加以及相对较高的飞机日利用率，时常会感到飞行员紧缺，因此会从市场上大量招募飞行员。这种飞行员不足的信息经市场传导后，整个民航行业就会笼罩在“飞行员荒”的阴影中。

飞行员增长快,后备力量足

根据民航发展“十二五”规划，“十二五”期间，中国民航运输机队规模和飞行员数量规划增速为11%。就今年8月份民航局下发的《民航发展“十二五”规划中期评估报告》中民航发展“十二五”规划指标完成情况来看，“十二五”规划前两年，中国飞行员平均增速为14.35%，增速远远高于运输机队规模的增长速度。

有业内专家预测，如果飞行员培养数量按照上述增长速度，即每年都超过100%完成规划目标，那么未来飞行员人数会基本满足中国民航运输生产的发展需要。

当然，无论是飞行员数量的高速增长还是运输机队规模接近11%的增速，都不是以牺牲飞机利用率和飞行员休息时间获得的。“民航发展‘十二五’规划中期评估报告”显示，截至“十二五”规划中期，中国运输飞机日利用率基本达到了9.6小时∕天的规划目标，与“AirlineDataProject”网站公布的美国几大航空公司飞机日利用率相比，处于较高水平。且根据上述2012年中国运输航空的飞行数据，飞行员的飞行时间也是符合民航局规章的。

此外，根据民航局飞标司统计的中国民航机长各年龄段的比例、航空公司飞行员年龄结构，以及每年招飞人数，再减去退休人员和预测的病休人数，可以预测出未来5年中国航空公司机长的数量。同时，民航局统计数据显示，2012年运输航空飞行时间比2011年增长10.54%，2013年运输航空飞行时间预计比2012年增长10.8%，均接近11%。可以预测，到2016年中国基本上可以解决运输航空机长不足的问题。

实际上，2005年以前中国飞行员短缺现象并不明显。民航局飞标司工作人员说，2005年在民营、地方航空企业大力发展以后，各个航空公司开始在社会上大面积招募飞行员。仅2005年当年，全社会就招收了1500多名飞行员，较前几年有大幅度提高。

从民航院校和航空公司反馈的情况来看，多数飞行员在进入航空公司之前一般需要在航校进行为期2年～4年的理论和飞行学习。而进入航空公司后，飞行员需要6年左右的时间才能升为机长。也就是说，2005年中国首次大量招收的飞行员在2015年前后才能多数成为机长，而在此之前各个航空公司会持续有机长不足的感觉。

与此同时，中国航校飞行员的招收数量在逐年递升。仅今年，中国航校就招收了3711名飞行学员，飞行员储备十分充足。

飞行员的其他用武之地,尽管飞行员增速较快，但这不表明将来飞行员会过剩，因为在社会的其他领域飞行员仍有用武之地。

在中国大力发展通用航空的今天，通用飞行员紧缺成为了各地通用航空发展中普遍存在的问题，但也为飞行员将来就业提供了一个新的机遇。同样急需飞行员的还有飞机以及飞机零部件生产厂家。几乎每个欧美国家的飞机以及飞机零部件生产厂家都有一支庞大的飞行员队伍参与到产品的设计、生产、试飞等环节，给予更为实用和专业的意见，规避产品在使用过程中的风险。而对于这一点，中国尚有所欠缺，急需要大量飞行员的加入。

此外，飞行教员也是中国民航的一大缺口。《中国民航驾驶员发展年度报告2012年版》显示，截至2012年末，在中国30829名民航飞行员中只有345名直升机私用飞行员。据业内人士预测，航校未来的培养方向将由培养“公共车司机”转变到培养“私家车司机”，飞行教员的需求量将激增。

除了上述几个领域外，民航的审定、气象等部门也需要持有各类飞行执照、并具有相关经验的专业技术人才的加入。

由此看来，运输航空将不再是民航飞行员的唯一选择，在民航相关领域，飞行员仍将发挥重要的作用，民航的多元化发展也将为飞行员打造另一片天地。

补充提示：

文中对飞行员的各种估测都基于一定的前提条件：

首先，运输航空飞行小时的年增长率目前约11%。如果空域开放，航班时刻增多，旅客运输量也可能增加，那么飞行员的需求量会比当前的预测大。

其次，中国民航在近期内没有爆发式增长。随着国民经济的发展，人们生活水平的提高，在未来某时刻，民航可能有突飞猛进的增长。而这种假设没有在文章的考虑范围之内。