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Volume 14,Issue 3 Autumn 2012

CAAC Needs to Replenish 3,796 Civil Aiircraft of All Models Within the Next 20 Years


According to 2009-2028 China Market Outlook of Civilian Aircraft, a press release by Aviation Industry Corporation of China, this year’s civil aviation growth should maintain at above 10%. As estimated for 2009-2028, china civil aviation industry needs to replenish 3796 civilian aircrafts of various models, in which 40% being 150 seats aircraft. The international and domestic markets showed an extremely large contrast during the 1st half year. The total turnover volume compared to the same period last year reflected a 3.9% raise with a 15.9% domestic and a negative 17.8% international growth. The passenger turnover was increased by 16.4% collectively where 19.6% rise from domestic flights and 16.8% down growth from international flights were found. Based on these numbers, the Outlook believed the international financial crisis would impact shortly on China’s economiy and air transportation market. But the aggressive stimulus plan by the chinese government has attained the optimum effects. Since the beginning of this year, the situation of civil aviation industry has turned better. The domestic passenger fllights has recovered to a faster growth, but the cargo transportation and international passenger flights are still lagged. Considering all aspects of the affecting factors, it is predicted that between 2009-2028, the average yearly growth rate for passenger turnover of China’s aviation will be 8.2%. Passenger’s person-kilometer will approach 1.38 trillion in 2028. The average yearly growth rate will be 10.2% for china’s air cargo turnover, which is higher than passenger transport, and will reach 82.75 billion ton-kilometer in 2028.

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